The National Review Is Still Insane

Awhile back, the eminent liberal blogger, the Poor Man , decided to try and determine whether The Nation was was crazier than the National Review. Based on an article from the National Review that suggested a nuclear first strike against North Korea, the Poor Man quite rightfully judged the National Review to be the craziest mainstream political publication in the U.S. The Poor Man's post on the matter of the National Review's insanity is several months old, so I thought it was worth revisiting. Posts like this from the National Review's weblog, the Corner, indicate that they little ha changed:

We toppled Saddam because there is no definition of "War Against Terror" that includes leaving a known terrorist in charge of an entire nation, its armies and its wealth. Forget democracy. All we ask of the new Iraq is that it be an ally against terror, that it move down the road toward modernity, and that it be a model of (relative) pluralism in the heart of the Mideast.

If this sounds disappointingly modest, consider it this way: If he is successful, and if world events stay on the current track, GWB could leave office in 2009 with new, moderate governments in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran (it's coming); a semi-autonomous, modern and democratic Kurdish region in Iraq; anti-terror cooperation from Libya and Saudi Arabia; Hamas and Hizbullah dying on the vite without major state sponsorship; ending, or seriously undermining, the legitimacy of terrorism itself; and no successful terrorist attacks on US soil, the biggest "if" of all

Alright, so the re-colonizing much of the Middle East business isn't nearly as crazy as nuking North Korea, but it still is up there. Usually the Mid East hawks talk about an invasion of Syria as the "next step", the fact that some at the Corner want to fry a much bigger fish, like Iran, is really reckless. In the first place, Iran is strong, much stronger than Saddam was in 1991 or 2003. Iran has not had to deal with a tight sanctions regime, its economy is nearly eight times larger than Iraq's, as are its military spending. Iran is also much more populous than Iraq and the number of men fit for military service is four times what Iraq has. Finally, the Iranian government, despite the presence of a refrom movement, is probably still able to command the loyalty of its people to a degree that Hussien regime never could. Combined with our current problems with an overburdened military, a war with Iran would almost certainly be a disaster, in the sense that it would burn through a lot of men and money with very little to show for it. Even if we were willing to bear these costs, the benefits would be fairly limited. True, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, but it is not a sponsor of Al Qeada. Furthermore, the Israeli's don't seem like they are having a very hard time crushing Hamas.

In the money

Kerry Campaign: Fund Raising Tops $80M

Democrat John Kerry far behind President Bush (news - web sites) in fund raising, has collected more than $80 million this year, reaching his goal three months ahead of schedule, his campaign announced Thursday.

Despite his recent success, however, Kerry still has a long way to match Bush's fund raising this year.

The Republican incumbent has raised more than $185 million since launching his re-election effort last May, and has spent about one-third of it, according to campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission (news - web sites).

Well, at least the situation is better now than it was at the end of the primaries when Kerry was in debt several million and Bush had not desperately spent half his war chest on campaign ads to try to contain the damage done by the 9-11 commission and the disorder in Iraq.

On a related (but not relevant) note, Gore is giving the Democrats $6 million, which is nice of him, I guess.

Interesting

The NY Times has an important story on the nature of the insurgency in Iraq:

A Pentagon intelligence report has concluded that many bombings against Americans and their allies in Iraq, and the more sophisticated of the guerrilla attacks in Falluja, are organized and often carried out by members of Saddam Hussein's secret service, who planned for the insurgency even before the fall of Baghdad.

The report does not imply that every guerrilla taking up arms against the Americans is under the command of the M-14, nor that every Iraqi who dances atop a charred Humvee is inspired by a former Iraqi intelligence agent. But the assessment helps explain how only a few thousand insurgents, with professional leadership from small numbers of Mr. Hussein's intelligence services and seasoned military officer corps, could prove to be such a challenge to the American occupation. "They carefully laid plans to occupy the occupiers," said one United States government official who has read the report. "They were prepared to try and hijack the country. The goal was to complicate the stabilization mission, and democratization."

Though there is a chance that this document is not completely reputable and might, like the much trumpeted (by the Weekly Standard) Pentagon memo linking Iraq to Al Qeada, really just be a political document produced by Defense Department hawks. As of now, we can't be sure:

The seven-page "Special Analysis" was written under Defense Intelligence Agency guidance by the Joint Intelligence Task Force, which includes officers and analysts from across the civilian and military espionage community. It is not known whether it represents a fully formed consensus or whether there might be dissenting assessments.

If it turns out that this Pentagon report is accurate, though, it is promising in its own grim way. If its true, it suggests that we aren't facing a more broad based anti-American rebellion.

More Criticism of Bush's pre-9-11 policies

Bremer Faulted Bush Before Terror Attacks
L. Paul Bremer, the U.S. administrator in Iraq said in a speech six months before the Sept. 11 attacks that the Bush administration was "paying no attention" to terrorism.
"What they will do is stagger along until there's a major incident and then suddenly say, 'Oh my God, shouldn't we be organized to deal with this,'" Bremer said at a McCormick Tribune Foundation conference on terrorism on Feb. 26, 2001.

Bremer spoke at the conference shortly after he chaired the National Commission on Terrorism, a bipartisan body formed by the Clinton administration to examine U.S. counterterrorism policies.

In the interests of equal time, I have decided to let the Great Jonah Goldberg reply to this bit of news:

We shouldn't trust Bremer though, he's just a disgruntled current employee and a partisan hack (he maybe a partisan hack for the GOP, but no matter in the end he is a hack) and let's remember this is the guy that was in charge when Iraq went to hell. L. Paul Bremer is so mendacious that if he gets a job in a future administration, it should be for Secretary of Lies! Can we really afford to listen to a man who's name starts with just an initial? I mean, what does the "L." Bremer stand for? We don't know. It could me "loser", but I prefer to think it means "lying liar". The man is just not credible, he only said those things because of politics and personal ambition. Unlike everyone else in Washington, Bremer is clearly just a self-seeking egomaniac more concerned with his own interest than the interests of the public. Clearly, he is just out for attention, but I think his 15 minutes of fame are just about over. My only regret about all of this is that his wife isn't an employee of the CIA's whose cover we could illegally blow....

I want to know

Who is this jerk?

If I don't get into Ronald Reagan University, I'll Just Diiiie.

Some promoter in Colorado has proposed establishing Ronald Reagan University. According to the World O'Crap weblog, though, the number of contradictory press accounts and inaccurate statements by the University's promoter indicate that it may all be just an elaborate scam. If that's the case, it would be the perfect tribute to the Reagan Presidency.

Starved for Cash...or Attention?

NYU student sleeps for months in library basement
Sophomore Steve Stanzak, 20, said he began spending six hours a night in the sub-basement of Bobst Library at the beginning of the academic year after he was unable to pay a $1,000 housing deposit. He slept on library chairs and carried vital belongings -- a laptop computer, books, clothes -- in his backpack.

University officials eventually discovered an online journal Stanzak kept about his experiences and relocated him to a free dorm room last Tuesday.

Scores of students read about Stanzak's daily adventures on his Web journal, www.homelessatnyu.com, and he became something of a campus celebrity.

"I thank everyone who helps me get through the day, and makes me realize that although I'm poor and live in a library ... that I'm learning a lot about life, and that I will make it through this," reads an entry dated April 15.

I was about to express my admiration of Mr. Stanzak's very resourceful style-until I discovered that he had been keeping an online journal about his life. His maintaining of such an internet diary, with a title like "homessatnyu", really raises the question of whether or not he was simply living in the basement of the New York University library, because he simply wanted to distinguish himself. Was the free dorm room avaikable to Stanzak before he became a minor celebrity? Or was the administration just acting out of PR concerns? These are critical questions that the most recent news reports do not yet answer. I feel that there are not enough facts to judge this fairly, but as the story develops I hope more information will emerge.

Pan-Blue Has Another Fit

Pan-blue camp sues past and present leaders
The opposition People First Party filed a libel suit against President Chen Shui-bian (ê?Ë®±â), former President Lee Teng-hui (ÀîµÇÝx) and presidential spokesman James Huang (üSÖ¾·¼) yesterday for their statements accusing the pan-blue alliance of plotting a "coup d'etat"

They chose to make a civil appeal against Chen because as president, he enjoys immunity from criminal prosecution, said Chang Hsien-yao (?ˆï@Ò«), director of the PFP's policy research center.

These KMT-People's Party creeps make the Republicans look like responsible partners in power.

What?

Confederate soldiers honored for defending homes and freedom
Southerners who fought for the Confederacy were men who defended their homes and their freedom, not slavery, said Briarwood Presbyterian Church pastor the Rev. Harry Reeder.

"They fought for the freedoms and rights of the states (as set out) in the Constitution," said Reeder at a Confederate Memorial Day service Sunday at Forest Hill Cemetery. "Most of them were there to defend the rights of their country."

Lousy traitorous, dishonest Johnny Reb wanna-be's.

Marked For Death Part III?

Israel Identifies New Secret Hamas Leader
Israel identified the new, secret Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip as Mahmoud Zahar, a 53-year-old Egyptian-trained physician, and signaled Monday he won't be targeted if the militant group halts attacks on Israelis.

Israel's military chief, Lt. Gen. Moshe Yaalon, told the Yediot Ahronot daily the new Hamas leader had inherited the post "automatically" and reluctantly accepted the position. Yaalon also signaled Israel would avoid attacking him as long as the group remains quiet.

"He doesn't want it, and he is apparently avoiding making decisions, and he is apparently avoiding terrorism," Yaalon said. "Anyone who doesn't use terrorism against us, we do not deal with."

Israel seems to be carrying out a bold, aggressive and possibly devastating strategy here. If they really are getting as good at assassinating terrorist leaders as it seems, then Hamas and similar groups (or at least their leaders) might be faced with either destruction by the Israelis or the humiliation (and subsequent loss of political clout) of having their actions dictated to them by Israel.

North Korean News

The Korean Central News Agency of the DPRK, isn't quite the Pyongyang evening news, but it is probably the closest most of us will get. In addition to regular announcements about new statues of Kim Sung Il, new edition's of the Eternal President's collected works, Kim Jung Il's acceptance of messages of sympathy from other foreign leaders, the KCNA features periodic warnings to the Japanese. More than fifty years after the end of the Second World War, the Japanese continued to be viewed with great suspicion and catch nearly as much flack as the United States in the North Korean press. Threats like the following are very common:

If Japan opts for reinvasion, obsessed by a foolish ambition to realize its old dream of the "Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere", oblivious of its past lesson, the Korean youth and students will deal telling blows at its reactionaries, the sworn enemy of the Korean people...

It is worth looking at if only to get a glimpse of how the North Korean view the world. Aficionados of fine propaganda may also enjoy yhe KCNA's classic overwrought style.

Bush should still be worried

According to Fox News, George W. Bush is leading John Kerry by one point. In its latest public opinion poll, Fox has Bush with 43% and Kerry with 42% in a head-to-head match-up. Now, some have taken this be a sign that the President is a a good, or at least not especially bad posisistion given how much bad news has come his way. However, it is worth remembering that challengers often enjoy a slight surge on election day and the actual results of the election are frequently higher than the final results of the opinion polls would have suggested. In 1996 the averages of 9 polls predicted that Clinton would recieve 50% of the vote and Dole would recieve 38%. In the end though, won the support of 41% of voters. Now there are a lot of variables at play here and it is possible that Kerry might not enjoy a similar effect, but if he does even to a very small degree, it could put him over the top in a close race.

Rallying the troops

The NY Times magazine reports that the Republicans will be using multi-level marketing style tactics as part of Bush's re-election campaign:

"The notion of translating the MLM concept into politics is visionary -- and also a little disquieting. Pyramid-based companies have proved amazingly successful at raising up armies of enterprising Americans; Amway, the world's most successful MLM, has more than 3.6 million distributors. But some MLM's thrive by imposing their own strange and insular cultures on their recruits, and while they offer the illusion of self-employment, those at the top of the pyramid often demand a rigid kind of uniformity and loyalty.

'It's love and belief in the importance of the president,' Mehlman told me earnestly. ''You can't, in politics and in almost anything you do, force people to do anything. You have to persuade them. They have to want to do it. That's why we do it this way. You're not following my orders. It's our orders. It's our effort. [emphasis their's]'"

I wonder what would happen if they learned there wasn't a spaceship behind that comet...

Remember, He's A War President

It's just that he doesn't seem to know how to fight one:

For the Bush administration it has been a mantra, one the president intones repeatedly: America's troops will get whatever they need to do the job. But as Iraq's liberation has turned into a daily grind of low-intensity combat—and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld grudgingly raises troop levels—many soldiers who are there say the Pentagon is failing to protect them with the best technology America has to offer. Especially tanks, Bradleys and other heavy vehicles, even in some cases body armor.

Soldiers in Iraq complain that Washington has been too slow to acknowledge that the Iraqi insurgency consists of more than "dead-enders." And even at the Pentagon many officers say Rumsfeld and his brass have been too reluctant to modify their long-term plans for a lighter military. On the battlefield, that has translated into a lack of armor. Perhaps the most telling example: a year ago the Pentagon had more than 400 main battle tanks in Iraq; as of recently, a senior Defense official told NEWSWEEK, there was barely a brigade's worth of operational tanks still there. (A brigade usually has about 70 tanks.)

In continuing adherence to the Army's "light is better" doctrine, even units recently rotated to Iraq have left most of their armor behind. These include the I Marine Expeditionary Force, which has paid dearly for that decision with an astonishing 30 percent-plus casualties (45 killed, more than 300 wounded) in Fallujah and Ar Ramadi. The Army's 1st Cavalry Division—which includes the unit in Sadr City—left five of every six of its tanks at home, and five of every six Bradleys.

A breakdown of the casualty figures suggests that many U.S. deaths and wounds in Iraq simply did not need to occur. According to an unofficial study by a defense consultant that is now circulating through the Army, of a total of 789 Coalition deaths as of April 15 (686 of them Americans), 142 were killed by land mines or improvised explosive devices, while 48 others died in rocket-propelled-grenade attacks. Almost all those soldiers were killed while in unprotected vehicles, which means that perhaps one in four of those killed in combat in Iraq might be alive if they had had stronger armor around them, the study suggested. Thousands more who were unprotected have suffered grievous wounds, such as the loss of limbs.


This continued negligence really is insane and I don't understand why it is not a much bigger deal.

Return of the Young Hipublicans

You know what's really kewl? The Republican Party, word, that's right, the Republican party. I always thought that they were lame, but now that they have told me to "stand up and holla" I have to give them mad props. Indeed, there can be no question that the GOP r0x! LOL! Still, it isn't nearly as cool as these guys.

FIGHT!

Box George W. Bush (and/or John Kerry) here.

Just Deserts

Poets die younger than writers, study finds
"Among American, Chinese and Turkish writers, poets died significantly younger than nonfiction writers," Kaufman wrote in the report. "Among the entire sample, poets died younger than both fiction writers and nonfiction writers."

A Set Back For The Neocons

Word on the street has it that Ahmed Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress and the long time favorite of Defense Department hawks has lost favor with the Bush White House. L. Paul Bremer has criticized the work of Chalabi's de-baathification committee and cutting off our $340,000 stipend to the INC is being considered. If only the administration had realized what a sleazy character Chalabi a little more than a year ago.

Down The Memory Hole?

A strange piece of news:

The Pentagon said Wednesday it deleted a key section from a transcript of an interview that reporter Bob Woodward conducted last year with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld...

At the briefing, Rumsfeld was disputing a passage in Woodward's new book, "Plan of Attack," alleging that Saudi Prince Bandar was told by Rumsfeld two months before the invasion of Iraq that it was "going to happen," and he could "take that to the bank":

"I don't remember saying it, to be perfectly honest," Rumsfeld said.

Woodward contends he got that information directly from Rumsfeld. "Don Rumsfeld is on the record, if you look on the Pentagon Web site, saying that he said, 'This war plan, you can take it to the bank. It's going to happen,'" the reporter said in a CNN interview earlier this week.

But he was wrong. The transcript of the October 23 interview posted by the Pentagon had been edited -- and that quote had been deleted with no reference on the Web site that any deletions had been made.

No need to worry though, because we have Donald Rumsfeld's word and a hearty serving of his classic wit to boot:

"I can say of certain knowledge that nothing was taken out that would naysay what I just indicated in my response to the question."

"No 18-minute gap?" a reporter asked.

"And you can take that to the bank," Rumsfeld responded, eliciting laughter.

Negroponte

The American Prospect has a highly critical look at the the man the White House wants to appoint as the next ambassador to Iraq, John Negroponte. The case against Negroponte is nicely summarized with this paragraph from the article:

Negroponte speaks no Arabic and has no background in the Middle East or the Islamic world. What he does have is a good deal of experience with counterinsurgency. Bad experience. Experience dating from the waning days of the Vietnam War through the Reagan administration's policies in Central America and consisting largely of propping up right-wing dictators, violating human rights, and working to deceive the Congress and the American people.

I'm sure with credential like these, John Negroponte (who is not the only participant in the Iran-Contra affair to have gotten a job with the Bush administration) will have no difficulty winning the hearts and minds of Iraqis and ensuring that the occupation and reconstruction of Iraq is totally above the board.

Coming Clean

After stonewalling for about a day, John Kerry has released his military records and they are now availble on his web site. The press reaction to the recently rleased documents appears to be very positive. The Associated Press' item on Kerry's records is titled Kerry Highly Praised in Military Records and its opening paragraph reads:

Records of John Kerry's Vietnam War service released Wednesday show a highly praised naval officer who volunteered for a dangerous assignment and at one point was "unofficially credited with 20 enemy killed in action."

You really couldn't ask for better coverage, especially since these biographical stories are probably better for a candidate trying to introduce themselves to the public.

The INC Vs. Saddam Hussien

What is the Iraqi Governing Council doing? It has more or less put the INC (Iraqi National Congress) in charge trying Saddam Hussien. Ahmed Chalabi's nephew Salem Chalabi has been designated general director of the tribunal by the IGC and Ahmed Chalabi's INC has also been given a seat on the tribunal. Given the very bad behavior of Ahmed Chalabi and his cronies, is there any reason to trust them with something so important? According to the article I linked to, this bit of news comes from the INC's spokesman, hopefully he's just lying and we haven't actually given these seedy characters anymore power than they already have.

No Joy In Some Quarters

No Berlin Love Parade this year

Germany looks set to pull the plug forever on the Berlin Love Parade after organisers said they have failed to secure funding for this summers festival that used to attract over a million dance music fans.

The Parade, which had became a symbol for Berlin's 'hipness' during the 1990s, has waned in recent years, narrowly avoiding financial collapse and drawing smaller crowds as techno music has lost its trendsetting appeal and entered mainstream culture.

The party maybe over, but the glow sticks still light the awful darkness.

The Second Coming

Awhile the Bush campaign had a tool that let people make campaign posters with custom slogans, but thanks to left wing cranks like myself and thousands of other losers who abused the system without mercy, the feature was removed. Now it appears that is back, sort of. Two new independent web sites have appeared that do basically the same thing. Click here for the Kerry sloganator and here for the Bush sloganator.

The Lost Presidency

Judging by the latest polls, there is a good chance that John Kerry may be the next President of the United States. If that happens I expect the Republican reaction to include a) enormous resentment towards Kerry and the Democrats (not that much of a shock) the disowning of George W. Bush and all his works by the conservate movement from the establishment to the grassroots. One of the most obvious reasons for Bush's possible repudiation by the Right is his conduct of foreign affairs. As Peter Beinart writes in this article for The New Republic:

[L]iberals can scale back their expectations of what is now possible in Iraq without abandoning democratic universalism--they can simply say the Bush administration has bungled the job. It is conservatives, who remain generally unwilling to criticize the administration's postwar stewardship, who will more likely be forced--if the situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate--to blame Iraqis instead. If the Iraq project fails, and John Kerry wins the presidency, it's quite possible to imagine a headlong return to the right-wing cultural relativism of the late '90s.

In addition to a return to jingo-isolationism, I suspecte we'll see Bush's legacy get hammered on several more fronts. After the Iraq war, the next most likely target for Republican rage will be Bush's insane fiscal policies. Though conservatives love tax cuts, they at least are willing to pay lip service to the importance of balanced budgets and are likely to become incescned when the budget defict balloons not just because of tax cuts, but tremendous increases in domestic spending (which we have seen a great deal of over the last few years). On a host of other side issues, like campaign finance reform, Bush is likely to get railed by his former allies.

In general, political movements tend to reject those that have failed them. The Republicans are particularly enthusiastic at leaving behind those that have become too burdensome by the side of the road. Conservatives turned their back on George Bush Sr. even before he was defeated by Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush contrasted himself favorably with the discredited congressional Republican in 2000. If the President gets his head handed to him by John Kerry, I don't doubt he'll suffer the same fate. I suspect the consequences of this fact will be quite harsh for neoconservatism. Bush's most talked about advisors have included many neoconservatives like Paul Woflowitz and Richard Perle, they are also seen as the architects of the Iraq war and their indifference towards to the libertarian sentiments of the GOP's base will probably raise the ire of more than a few bitter Republicans. If there is an -ism that can be readily associated with this administration, it is neoconservatism and if there is an group that will take the heat if Bush loses, it will the be the neoconservatives.

Dept of Propaganda

Take a look at the follow piece of text and try to guess at its source:

"America has a choice: It can continue to grow the economy and create new jobs as the President's policies are doing; or it can raise taxes on American families and small businesses, hurting economic recovery and future job creation."

Is it from a National Review Editorial? A speech by Ed Gillespie? An op-ed by William Safire? Sadly, it is not lifted from any of these items. The above quote is part of a note attached to the bottom of official Treasury Department press releases. Clearly, this is not an especially awful misuse of the government's power, but it fits a pattern and that pattern is a disconcerting one. At every turn the Republicans, and the Bush administration in particular appear to be willing to cut ethical corners in exchange for political gain. From the moment they came into office they acted as if the Federal government was meant to serve only them and they will continue to do so until the day they leave.

Felix Style

Fed-up fat cat goes on hunger strike
BERLIN, Germany (Reuters) -- An obese German cat six times the normal weight has gone on a hunger strike at a Berlin animal shelter after being taken from his owner who had fed him two kg (4.4 lbs) of mince daily, Bild newspaper reported.
I maybe alone in this view, but I find this news story way funnier than Garfield.

Takin' A Break

For reasons of my own, I won't be around for a few days and so I don't expect their to be much blogging. In the mean time, I invite everyone to explore the work of the War Nerd, Gary Brecher. I highly recommend his diatribe against Tom Clancy, which features remarks such as these:

I may be the loser here, but at least I'm serious. If I had Clancy's money, I would burn and pillage from horizon to horizon. There would be columns of smoke from every direction. I'd become a warlord, not an NFL franchise owner sitting in a corporate box talking about pass defense and smoking cigars.

With 200 million dollars out there on the steppes, you'd be Shah. Ride the steppes all day with an eagle on your wrist and your retinue in attendance, hunting small game and children: "Swoop, my beauteous eagle! Swoop on yon peasant brat!"

Reactions to Bush's play-date with the Press

Even the conservative National Review takes a dim view of George W. Bush's recent appearance:

It sometimes seems that GWB is determined to play to the negative stereotype of him, viz. that he is lazy, sloppy, and ill-prepared. First-hand accounts of the administration, like David Frum's book, don't leave that impression at all -- but only us inside-baseball types read those accounts. To the great majority of voters, Bush is what he appears to be at events like last night's: sincere, human and patriotic, but at the same time lazy, sloppy, and ill-prepared.

Andrew Sullivan, however, continues to heroically pull the party line under any circumstances:
I've just watched the press conference later on C-SPAN. Not only was the transcript encouraging. I found the president clear, forceful, impassioned, determined, real. This was not an average performance. I found it Bush at his best. He needs to do it more.

Bush On The Boob Tube

Though I didn't watch all of the President's appearance (I learned my lesson about that sort of thing when I watched the staged press confrence he held on the eve of the Iraq war), I did catch some it while it was re-run on the cable networks. Based on what I saw, I think that Bush's reluctance to do these sorts of things is very justified. It seems like the decision to put Bush on prime time TV was driven by desperation. The White House has been getting clobbered almost continously since the start of 2004 and tonight was an attempt to try to stem this disasterous tide. Fortunately for John Kerry and those that support him (like myself), I think the press confrence was a miserable failure. His performance was poor and unlikely to have swayed anyone not already in his (shrinking) camp and probably re-enforced peoples' doubts about the Man. I think this will about to another 2004 State of the Union in terms of its consequences. Actually, allow me to correct myself, I expect it to be somewhat less damaging than the State of the Union was. The State of the Union got a lot of Bush's base nervous, while I doubt this press confrence will have that effect. Nonetheless, I believe tonight was a bad night for George Bush, though as always we'll have to see how this all plays out.

Homophobes Take The Onion Seriously

From the London Free Press, via the Chin:

A school board trustee is demanding an apology from a parents' group that used a fake photo from a satirical newspaper on its pamphlets opposing the expansion of a safe schools policy. Simply Truths Our Priority, or STOP, handed out pamphlets and computer discs with a 300-page book of Internet research outside a public meeting last week...

The photo shows a teacher at the front of a class with explicit sexual images and terms drawn on the board and is supposed to represent one of the "countless" classrooms where homosexuality is promoted.

The picture was copied from the Onion, a satirical newspaper from the United States. The headline of the 1998 story says, " '98 homosexual drive nearing goal."

The story, written out of San Francisco, goes on to say children are being successfully recruited into homosexuality because of the "gay lobby's infiltration of America's public schools."

Marilyn Ashworth of STOP said it's concerned the photo represents what will end up in this region's schools if the board goes ahead with its plan...

Asked whether she believed it was a real photo, Ashworth said the caption included the teacher's name, city, state and grade.

"We researched in depth and that was one of the things we found," she said, noting the group spent seven weeks accumulating research.

Not to sound pompous, but I'd like to take this opportunity Voltaire, who once wrote: "I have never made but one prayer to God, a very short one: 'O Lord, make my enemies ridiculous.' And God granted it."

Kerry's Plan For Iraq

Key quotes from the Senator's Op-Ed on Iraq:

"The administration must make the United Nations a full partner responsible for developing Iraq's transition to a new constitution and government. We also need to renew our effort to attract international support in the form of boots on the ground to create a climate of security in Iraq. We need more troops and more people who can train Iraqi troops and assist Iraqi police..."

"The United Nations, not the United States, should be the primary civilian partner in working with Iraqi leaders to hold elections, restore government services, rebuild the economy, and re-create a sense of hope and optimism among the Iraqi people. The primary responsibility for security must remain with the U.S. military, preferably helped by NATO until we have an Iraqi security force fully prepared to take responsibility."

While Kerry isn't completely clear on some points, his most recent pronouncement is certainly more detailed than the President's meaningless cowboy rhetoric.

Labor Rights and Trade Liberalization

Disclaimer: I know I am pretty late in the game on the whole trade debate and what I have to say is not likely to be all that original, but please forgive me, I came to the debate late and much of it happened when I was still watching the Ninja Turtles. If you find that my later comments contradict my earlier ones, please take a look at the standard response of the inconsistent.

That said, "The China Syndrome", an article that appeared In These Times raised some important issues. The thrust of the piece was that the mistreatment of workers in repressive regimes like China harms the cause of labor around the world. This matter is separate from the question of low wages in Third World and a much more compelling argument against indiscriminate free trade. Low wages, when they occur organically in a free society, are the result of economic necessity. If the price of labor wasn't at that level or thereabouts, it is unlikely that a developing nation would be able to attract the capital needed for further economic growth and development. Under these circumstances the classic case for tree trade still works, more or less. However, in instances where workers (and is often the case in such situations, citizens) are denied their basic rights (such as the right organize), the entire equation is changed. Rather than wage level being the natural product of the market, they are the artificial consequence of government policy and therefore quite unfair. In fact, it runs completely counter to the spirit of free trade and amounts to protectionism, as it benefits the ruling class of one country at the expense of the working class worldwide (or at least those whose countries are part of the global economy). Therefore, when it is possible, there is no reason to limit trade with governments whose policies are so anti-competitive and immoral. If this thinking was put into pracitce, than China and other regimes like it would be shut out of major markets, while relatively liberal, but poor states like India and Mexico would benefit.

However, there is an important exceptions to my point. Geopolitics should not be ignored when divising trade policy, as decisions about trade do affect foreign relations. Enacting protectionist measures against China, especially now that we need its cooperation in managing North Korea, might have serious repurcussions. By the same token, opening our markets to the goods of authoritarian allies like Pakistan would also probably be good policy, though it is not in line with the principle outlined above.

"Like All Things Spanish, It Is Dangerous."

Read this classic, awful essay on El Nino (and a bonus composistion about lightning) right here,

At Least He Wasn't Some Immoral, God-hating Atheist

Bank-Robbing Church Minister Headed to JailA federal judge on Thursday sentenced a pentecostal minister to more than six years in prison for robbing banks from Maine to Massachusetts of more than $10,000, prosecutors said.

If only the ten commandments had been placed in his fifth grade classroom, the minister's fall from grace could have been prevented.

All In The Family

John Kerry and George W. Bush are reported to be distantly related. The two men running for President this year are ninth cousins, twice removed. Not only that, but they also have blood ties to Hugh Hefner. Even more interesting than the common ancestry of Bush and Kerry, though, is the fact that both men were members of Yale's secret Skull and Bones society. Given the very small size of the organization and that John Kerry is only two years Bush's senior, it is possible that they have known each other for decades. If I were a bit more paranoid, I say something funny was going on here, but for now I'll chalk it all up to coincidence.

Think of it as a 2 hour campaign ad/blockbuster

Clarke's Book To Become Movie
Seeing as how critical Richard Clarke has been of Bush's counter-terrorism policies before and after September 11th, it is likely that a movei based on his book will be not be kind to the current administration. I guess now we have answer to that low-rent and laughably pro-Bush, "DC/9-11". On the downside, a film based on Against All Enemies might confirm the right's claims of liberal bias in the media, but then they never liked Hollywood (and the Hollywood never liked them) anyway.

Lazy Bones

This weekend George W. Bush successfully enjoyed his 500th day of vacation since becoming President. It is more than a little unsetteling that the leader of the Free World makes third term senior seem like modern day stakhanovites.

The Red Menace Revisited

The year to fear for Taiwan: 2006

TAIPEI - If China ever makes the decision to invade Taiwan it is unlikely to be a large-scale Normandy-style amphibious assault. The reality is that China is more likely to use a decapitation strategy. Decapitation strategies short circuit command and control systems, wipe out nationwide nerve centers, and leave the opponent hopelessly lost. As the old saying goes, "Kill the head and the body dies." All China needs to do is seize the center of power, the capital and its leaders.

If China decides to use force to reunify the mainland with what it terms a breakaway province, the window of opportunity is believed to be 2006. This would give China a couple of years to clean up the mess before the 2008 Summer Olympics. Most analysts estimate that China's military strength will surpass Taiwan's defense capabilities by 2005. So 2006 - the Year of the Dog - is clearly the year to fear.

The Asia Times piece offers a very alarming picture of the near future. Earlier, the Weekly Standard had warned that the that Chinese Government or the "80-year old chain-smoking communist dwarves" as Pat Buchanan once called them, were becoming more hawkish in terms of Taiwan and believed that the balance of forces was rapidly shifting in their favor. This article, written by Janes Taiwan correspondent, in conjunction with recent events (the disputed elections in Taiwan and Bush's increasing softness with regards to China) are really worrying. In the short term the US ought to take a clearer, sterner posistion so that the Chinese undestand that any military aggression will have severe consequences. In the long run though, it is essential that Taiwan expand and improve its armed forces, a buildup that might include the development of unconventional weapons. China is so influential that the United States will probably need to rely on its cooperation more, not less in the years to come and Taiwan will most likely lose out unless it is capable of protecting its own interests.

Polling Report

According to Newsweek in a two man race, Kerry would get 50% and Bush 43% of the vote. When St. Ralph is thrown in, Kerry still leads by four percent with Bush getting 42% and Nader getting 6%. The poll also includes this little tidbit:

At least half of those polled disapprove of Bush’s handling of the economy (55 percent versus 41 percent approving) and Iraq (51 percent versus 44 percent). And while 59 percent approve of his handling of terrorism and homeland security, that number is down from 70 percent earlier this year.

Despite the relatively strong job growth in March, the economy is still not his strong point. It seems the public has a longer memory than it is often given credit for. The 9-11 inquiry and the insurgency in Iraq are ebbing away at the President's national security rating as well. So far John Kerry has not launched a major ad offensive, unlike his opponent. This is about to change and it will be interesting to see what impact they will have, especially given the recent shake-up of his media staff.

K-Man Cam

Available here.

KERRY!

From the NY Times:
Democrat John Kerry said Wednesday that if elected president he will cap federal spending and acknowledged that doing so will require him to cut some of his campaign promises.

Kerry said he would not allow the federal budget, other than spending on education and homeland security, to grow beyond the rate of inflation.

I know that the most recent jobs report must have scared the Kerry campaign. Now that there is the danger that the employment issue will lose its effectiveness, Kerry is looking for a new domestic policy. Unlike the Times editorial board (and much like Comrade Max) I am not pleased by his attempt to be an ultra-deficit hawk. I really hope this no new spending pledge, like his lame tax plan, is one of the first promises he breaks. There is no reason why he should put himself in that sort of fiscal straightjacket.

"Morality" Watch

Stiffer fine from the FCC get Howard Stern knocked off Clear Channel:

Clear Channel Dropping the Howard Stern Show

The Federal Communications Commission (news - web sites) said the amount represented the maximum possible under current law of $27,500 for each of the total of eighteen violations.

Clear Channel announced it was pulling the show from its airwaves permanently after failing to get assurances that the program would comply with decency regulations from its syndicator -- Infinity Broadcasting, a unit of Viacom Inc.

and the Department of Justice has declared unconditional war on pornography:

In explicit terms, the attorney general told Congress this week that hardcore sex sites would no longer be selling peeks at balloon-breasted babes.

"I am concerned about obscenity and I'm concerned about obscenity as it relates to our children," Ashcroft said in his first appearance before the House Judiciary Committee.

He said Justice Department prosecutors would help state officials imprison sex-site operators that feature obscene images: "We try to be especially accommodating to local law enforcement to assist them, and I would think that would be an objective of ours in this respect."

I don't recall things like this happening when it wasn't and election year and Bush wasn't trailing in the polls. Odd how that works out.

The Ghost of Gnatty B

Testing.

Luskin

Donald Luskin is one of Paul Krugman's most relentless critics and one of the irritable men remotely involved in public life (he wanted to sue atrios for making fun of him). However, he has produced a pretty good column here.

Iraq Around the Web

Josh Marshall is worried:

The news from Iraq today of scattered clashes between US/Coalition forces and armed crowds and Shia paramilitaries is the worst news to come out of Iraq for months...

It will be critical to see, in the coming days, whether this is one spasm of violence (organized by the young firebrand Muqtada Al-Sadr in response to being shut out of the political process by the Americans) which can be brought under control or whether this is the first day of a new phase of violence or even uprising.

The reality is that the US doesn't have anywhere enough soldiers in the country to control the place if there's this sort of widespread violence on an on-going basis. That could quickly lead to a vicious cycle which will put a virtual end to reconstruction and prevent the coming into being of any entity for us to hand the place off to. In Jefferson's ugly phrase, we may end up holding the wolf by the ears.


Even the conservative Andrew Sullivan is beginning to get the fear:

With three months to go before sovereignty is handed over to a provisional government, there are some nightmarish portents...it seems to me undeniable that events may be spinning out of control.

and the public seems to agree:

Public support for war in Iraq has been unaffected by the murders and desecration of the corpses of American citizens in Falluja. However, continued turmoil and violence in Iraq may be taking a toll on President Bush's approval ratings. More Americans now disapprove of the way he is doing his job than approve, though by only a slight margin (47% disapprove vs. 43% approve). Just four-in-ten approve of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, his lowest rating ever and down from 59% in January.

Hopefully Iraq won't go reach the point of no return before some new national leadership can replace these irresponsible incompetents and/or certain persons concerned about their political fortunes which actually do something other than standing around and hoping the situation improves.

Not As Crazy As They Seem

The John Birch Society, which once accused President Eisenhower of being a communist, appears to be in some ways more moderate than today's GOP establishment. In the previous issue of their magazine the New American, the come out against the FMA (Federal Marriage Amendment) which has one the support of George W. Bush and the Master of the Senate, Bill Frist. According to the Birchers:

Marriage is first and foremost a religious matter, not a government matter. Government is not moral and cannot make us moral. Law should reflect moral standards, of course, but morality comes from religion, from philosophy, from societal standards, from families, and from responsible individuals. We make a mistake when we look to government for moral leadership....

Social problems cannot be solved by constitutional amendments or government edicts. Nationalizing marriage laws will only grant more power over our lives to the federal government, even if for supposedly conservative ends. Throughout the 20th century, the relentless federalization of state law served the interests of the cultural left, and we should not kid ourselves that the same practice now can save freedom and morality. True conservatives and libertarians should understand that the solution to our moral and cultural decline does not lie in a strong centralized government.

Say what you will about the John Birch crowd, they have principles they are unwilling to let small-minded prejudice compromise them.

Very Unintentionally Funny Stuff

John Derbyshire posted the following on the National Review's weblog, the Corner on August 7th. I hadn't come across it untill now, but I believe it must be quoted at length.

One that I especially think worth noting is, that the commitment of homosexual activists to free speech is about one millimeter deep... Make no mistake about it: there is a serious, strong current of thought out there that believes ANY objection to homosexuality is "hate speech" and ought to be criminalized--or, if it cannot be criminalized, shut down by any means that come to hand. I say again: there are many exceptions, and I thank those readers who, after identifying themselves as homosexual, went on to argue with me in a thoughtful and civilized way. But I now know something I did not know 48 hours ago, or knew only vaguely and imperfectly: gay fascism is real, and strong, and determined. If this Political Correctness cannot be stopped, we are going to lose our freedoms.

Gay fascism! Derbyshire is polluting his briches (though I believe he'd deny being a homophobe since he "isn't scared of them") in fear and getting all worked up because he has been confronted by the dark force of "gay fascism". I'm not sure how on earth anyone can take any entity that is assocaited with a man like this seriously.

Stating the Obvious

Newsview: The dreadful, mysterious power of Fate which there is no deliverance from it by wealth or by war, by fenced city, or dark, sea-beaten ships, May Rule White House Race

WASHINGTON - The political fortunes of President Bush (news - web sites) and Democrat John Kerry (news - web sites) are largely out of their control, pinned to unpredictable outcomes in Iraq (news - web sites), the vagaries of the economy and the fight against terrorism.

"There's a lot more that can't be controlled than can," said David Danbom, history professor at North Dakota State University in Fargo.

I wonder if Nicholas D. Kristoff will use this idea in his next column, which will feature obligatory illustrations from classic Greek drama.

Who are you?

The latest personality quiz that is sweeping the internet is "which NY Times Columnist [more like COMMUNIST! huh huh] Are You?" It is an unobjectionable way to waste a few minutes of your life, though some of the questions do not seem that good. Perhaps I am just saying this because the test results said I was Thomas L. Friedman and I am not a huge fan of him.

Via atrios.

Phrase of the Day

This excerpt from William F. Buckely's Febuarary 29th column gives us a look into what conservatives are really thinking:
"As things have now gone, the action of one court in one state (Massachusetts) has swamped political discussion. It had been dreamily suggested by equal rightists"
Not only is Buckley a fearless innovator of the english language, but he's also a courageous conservative who is willing to oppose "equal rights" outright. Then again, William F. Buckley has never been a huge fan of equality....

"You will laugh, but it is true that a Mexican-American from El Paso High with identical scores on the achievement tests, and identically ardent recommendations from the headmaster, has a better chance of being admitted to Yale than Jonathan Edwards the Sixteenth from Saint Paul's School."-WFB Jr., 1968.

?The central question that emerges . . . is whether the White community in the South is entitled to take such measures as are necessary to prevail, politically and culturally, in areas in which it does not prevail numerically? The sobering answer is Yes?the White community is so entitled because, for the time being, it is the advanced race. It is not easy, and it is unpleasant, to adduce statistics evidencing the cultural superiority of White over Negro: but it is a fact that obtrudes, one that cannot be hidden by ever-so-busy egalitarians and anthropologists.?-WFB, 1957

Apparently William F. Buckley never got the memo that conservatives are on the side of true quality and the republicans are the real party of civil rights.

Even More Bush Flip-Flops

The Heritage Institution of the Left, the Center for American Progress has released a new, more complete account of George W. Bush's inconsistencies. Clearly, he is a man willing to do or say anything to perserve his hold on power.

I see...

This adviser said that Karl Rove, Mr. Bush's senior adviser and political strategist, wanted to move the election away from questions like "Were there intelligence failures?" and to put the focus instead on which candidate could better protect against any future efforts by terrorists to attack the United States.

"If we're going to have a discussion about W.M.D. and intelligence failures and Osama bin Laden, that's not an election George W. Bush wins," the adviser said. "If it's about who keeps you safer, that's the ground we want to be on."

Via TNR