Monday, April 26, 2004

Bush should still be worried

According to Fox News, George W. Bush is leading John Kerry by one point. In its latest public opinion poll, Fox has Bush with 43% and Kerry with 42% in a head-to-head match-up. Now, some have taken this be a sign that the President is a a good, or at least not especially bad posisistion given how much bad news has come his way. However, it is worth remembering that challengers often enjoy a slight surge on election day and the actual results of the election are frequently higher than the final results of the opinion polls would have suggested. In 1996 the averages of 9 polls predicted that Clinton would recieve 50% of the vote and Dole would recieve 38%. In the end though, won the support of 41% of voters. Now there are a lot of variables at play here and it is possible that Kerry might not enjoy a similar effect, but if he does even to a very small degree, it could put him over the top in a close race.


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