A Preview of 2004

Each day the Republican strategy for the Presidential election becomes increasingly clear. I suspect that the GOP is going to focus on social issues in order to the divert Geoge W. Bush's serious domestic and foreign policy failures. I don't expect Bush to brag about how we went from record budget surpluses to record deficits or how he's the first president since Herbter Hoover to finish his term with fewer jobs than when he started. In 2002, the Republicans tried to use the Iraq War/the War on terror as a campaign tool, they may try it again, but they'll be more hesitant this time. Bush's $87 billion request for reconstructing Iraq is unpopular and more bad news from Iraq can be expected for some time to come. Bush's early declaration of victory makes the situation in Iraq an even greater political liability for him; it is a pretty safe bet that Bush's ridiculous carrier landing will make an appearance in countless Democratic attack ads. Having screwed up on all fronts, the Right is gearing up to refight the culture war. The talk of an anti-gay marriage amendment to the constitution, the White House's coddling of General Boykin (who called Islam idolatry and said the war on terrorism was a religious war) and the passage of the partial birth abortion ban ares signs of a new focus on social issues. It is also likely that the Supreme Court's peldge of allegiance ruling (especially if the Supreme Court uphold's the 9th circuit court's decision) and its decision legalizing sodomy are going to be used as campaign fodder by the Republicans.

I'm not really sure how the Democrats should handle this Republican strategy (if I am right and it really is their plan). I wouldn't want them to embrace reactionary posistion. Co-opting the Republicans is unlikely to work since the convetional wisdom is that the Democrats are social liberals and any attempt to prove otherwise would be greeted with great skepticism and is unseemly to boot. I think the best we can do, is avoid giving conservatives an easy target like Howard Dean and instead appealing to middle america with style, if not substance by nominating someone from the South or Middle West (basically anyone who is not Dean or Kerry).