Tuesday, July 20, 2004

2008: The non-story

Dems Seen Favoring Sen. Clinton in '08
An Associated Press survey found that the first-term New York senator is the choice of more than a quarter of the delegates while Edwards, recently tapped by Kerry to be his running mate, was favored by some 17 percent.

I continue to believe that all this Hillary speculation is baseless. As a matter of fact, the AP story is a bit misleading since it identifies Hillary as the favorite 2008 among the Democratic Convention's delegates when a vast majority of the delegates believed that Kerry would win this year. Clearly with such a large portion of the sample unaccounted for nothing close to a definitive answer can be reached. Setting aside this survey for a moment, it would not be surprising if in the early days of the 2008 Democratic primaries (assuming Kerry loses) Hillary led in the polls, but these early reports are always extremely inaccurate. I remember in 2002 and 2003 seeing polls where Al Gore and then later Joe Lieberman were the most popular candidates for the Democratic nominee. Clinton has name recognition and fundraising resources, but these characteristics do not guarantee success.


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