Monday, September 06, 2004

What Lies Ahead

It is widely believed that the moderate Republicans that spoke at the Convention, Giuliani, Pataki and McCain are trying to posistion themselves for 2008 by gaining some national exposure and getting on the good side of George W. Bush. I am not sure how good an idea that is. A second Bush term will likely strengthen the right wing of the Republican Party while a Bush defeat (which would be the fourth consecutive time the Republicans failed to win the most votes in a Presidential election) could spark a little reflection on the part of the GOP. Furthermore all the ambitious moderates will have to contend with some serious conservative rivals (Jeb Bush, Condoleeza Rice?). Based on the President's long history of screwing those that cut deals with him, it isn't likely that the loyalty of McCain and his fellow travellers will be remembered in 2008. Some of the moderates in question ought to just give up now. Pataki in particular may as well give up all hope for the future. He can either run for the Republican nomination and get crushed by any other living Republican (unlike Giuliani or McCain he has no reputation for personal heroism that could help him along) or loes to Attorney General Elliot Spitzer in New York. Governor Pataki richly deserves either of these two fates.